PredictionBook

A site built by TrikeApps, that helps you hone your ability to assess your predictions based on the level of fact.

The Project

PredictionBook is a site you can use to record and track your predictions.

Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you’re really really sure will occur. If you’re properly calibrated, you’ll be able to see that about 60% of the things you’re 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you’re 90% sure will happen, do happen.

The Results

Originally built by TrikeApps to help out the fine folks at MIRI, PredictionBook has become a much-loved community site where individuals from all over the web come to train their ability to be only as sure as the facts justify. PredictionBook is an open-source codebase.

Launch URL

PredictionBook screenshot - large